Global News Insider

Written by Marián Šeliga

1. What are the reasons for the latest unrest in Kazakhstan?
2. The role of clan (SHUZ) groups in Kazakhstan and their mutual rivalry.
3. Who is Muchtar Ablyazev and his DVK?
4. The very high level of organization of the protests raises many questions.
5. “Tiananmen” crackdown in Kazakhstan as the most possible scenario.
6. Consequences for the regional players and for Russia. Headache for Kremlin or “victory” of imperialists.

What are the reasons for the latest unrests in Kazakhstan?

The innocent unrest in the Mangistau oil region which started on the 1st January and which according to the media was caused by discontent of local citizens with the increase in the cost of liquefied gas, has instantly turned into violent protests which have spread across the whole country. The latter actions have developed so rapidly that foreign media still have great difficulty in figuring out what actually has happened. The protests in Kazakhstan have in just three days led to the announcement of a state of emergency in the country, the resignation of the government, Internet blackout, the stepping down of life-long Kazakh leader Nazarbayev as the chairman of the National Security Council and sending paratroopers from the CSTO alliance to the country. But what are the reasons for the massive unrest in Kazakhstan? This is a very difficult question to answer, but the rise in price of LNG is only one of the reasons, but certainly not the most important one, which caused thousands of people to protest. As the British BBC states, “the speed at which the protests turned violent clearly demonstrated that they are not only about an increase in fuel prices.” These protests have more to do with the authoritarian rule in the country, the rivalry between clan structures and opposition mainly represented by Muchtar Ablyazov. The involvement of radical muslim protesters is also not excluded.

The role of clan (SHUZ) groups in Kazakhstan and their mutual rivalry.

Kazakhstan according to many specialists in its current borders is to a larger degree a product of the Soviet Union or to put it more precisely, the product of the disintegration of the USSR. Kazakhstan is a multinational (there are 3,5 million Russians living there) and multiregional country with the longest border with the Russian Federation. Apart from Russians, there are Kazakh, Uzbek, Uygur, Tatars and other smaller nationalities living in the country. The most populous Kazakh nation is represented by bigger clan structures (so called Zhuz) which are in a very simplified description rather independent communities with special traditional and family relations and there has always been a rivalry between these clans for power. Such clan structures shall be found also in other Central Asian countries, where the clans fight with each other to take the dominant position. Nazarbayev belongs to the so-called Elder Zhuz (In Russian “Starshij zhuz”) clan which has a very complicated relation with the Western (Younger) and Southern Zhuz in the country.

The latest Kazakh protests have started in the Mangistau region, populated mainly by Kazakhs from the so-called Adai clan. It is curious that this particular clan is one of the key ones in the structure of the Younger Zhuz, the very one that has already become the initiator of the split of the state in the history of the Kazakhs. Now, on the territory of the Younger Zhuz, the ideas of creating a state independent of Kazakhstan, which were very popular in the the 1990s, are wandering with renewed vigour. Especially popular is the assertion that the Adai people (Adai region is rich in oil reserves) feed the whole of Kazakhstan, while they themselves sit half-starving.

Who is Muchtar Ablyazov and his DVK?

Amid the rivalry between the clan structures (Elder Zhuz and Younger Zhuz) there are also other factors which shall be considered when analysing the reasons for the recent unprecedented protests in Kazakhstan. Mr. Muchtar Ablyazov, currently living in Kiev, as a harsh critic of Nazarbayev’s regime, who also calls the current President Tokayev as a nominal of Nazarbayev or simply a “furniture” (Tokayev stays at the place wherever Nazarbayev puts him), has recently organised numerous anti government protests to dismantle Nazarbayev’s political regime. Ablyazov as well as his political party DVK (as Ablyazov personally admitted) plays a special role in the organisation of anti government protests. Ablyazov believes that Nazarbayev and his family have already left Kazakhstan for Russia as they fear prosecution and imprisonment in Kazakhstan. Ablyazov undermines the authority of Putin, Lukashenko and Nazarbayev, calling them authoritarian presidents who are still using USSR times ruling methods which are outdated and therefore their regimes should be dismantled.

The very high level of organisation of the protests raises many questions

From the pictures we see from Kazakhstan, it becomes obvious that protests do not take place spontaneously. They are very well organised and coordinated. Otherwise, it would have been impossible to seize the residence of the president, government agencies, airport and other infrastructure practically within one day. In this regard, a theory has arisen about a possible conspiracy among the special services of Kazakhstan and the active involvement of aggressive radical militants from Afghanistan or the Middle East in the protests. In the near future after the suppression of the rebellion, an investigation should take place, which will give answers regarding the organisers of the protests.

“Tiananmen” crackdown in Kazakhstan as the most possible scenario.

In our opinion (Globinsider), the most realistic scenario of the following days in Kazakhstan will be the so-called “Tiananmen” crackdown on protesters. This implies a forceful solution of the crisis using weapons and bullets. As the crisis may evolve into a more serious regional crisis with possible implications for Russia, Tokayev has already asked for help his allies from the CSTO alliance to counter terrorist attack against Kazakstan sovereignty. According to the CSTO, the peacekeeping force will be deployed to help protect state and military installations in Kazakhstan.

Consequences for the regional players and for Russia. Headache for Kremlin or “victory” of imperialists

We assume that the counterterroristic or peacekeeping mission in Kazakhstan will lead to stabilisation of the situation in this Central Asian republic. The Kazakhstan President shall conduct a very serious investigation to find out who is behind the well organised and coordinated protests as the next step after the situation is stabilised. But as the crisis (which possibly includes the involvement of radical protesters from abroad) has a larger regional impact, the question about the very presence of CSTO troops in Kazakhstan and the time of this presence is still open. The Kremlin definitely would like to use this opportunity to ask Tokayev for some favour. It is not a secret that imperialist politologists as well as some representatives sitting in Kremlin call the disintegration of the USSR as the largest geopolitical tragedy in the 20th century. And we shall not forget that this year also marks exactly the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Soviet Union.